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We present a mechanism for Arnold diffusion in energy in a model of the elliptic Hill four-body problem. Our model is expressed as a small perturbation of the circular Hill four-body problem, with the small parameter being the eccentricity of the orbits of the primaries. The mechanism relies on the existence of two normally hyperbolic invariant manifolds (NHIM's), and on the corresponding homoclinic and heteroclinic connections. The dynamics along homoclinic/heteroclinic orbits is encoded via scattering maps, which we compute numerically. Having several scattering maps, at each point we select the scattering map that gives the largest gain in energy or the scattering map that gives the smallest loss in energy. Using Birkhoff's Ergodic Theorem we show that there are pseudo-orbits generated by the selected scattering maps along which, on average, the energy grows by an amount independent of the small parameter. A shadowing lemma yields the existence of diffusing orbits. 

We present a heuristic argument for the propensity of Topological Data Analysis (TDA) to detect early warning signals of critical transitions in financial time series. Our argument is based on the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model, which characterizes financial bubbles as super-exponential growth (or decay) of an asset price superimposed with oscillations increasing in frequency and decreasing in amplitude when approaching a critical transition (tipping point). We show that whenever the LPPLS model is fitting with the data, TDA generates early warning signals. As an application, we illustrate this approach on a sample of positive and negative bubbles in the Bitcoin historical price. 

For a mechanical system consisting of a rotator and a pendulum coupled via a small, time-periodic Hamiltonian perturbation, the Arnold diffusion problem asserts the existence of “diffusing orbits” along which the energy of the rotator grows by an amount independent of the size of the coupling parameter, for all sufficiently small values of the coupling parameter. There is a vast literature on establishing Arnold diffusion for such systems. In this work, we consider the case when an additional, dissipative perturbation is added to the rotator-pendulum system with coupling. Therefore, the system obtained is not symplectic but conformally symplectic. We provide explicit conditions on the dissipation parameter, so that the resulting system still exhibits energy growth. The fact that Arnold diffusion may play a role in systems with small dissipation was conjectured by Chirikov. In this work, the coupling is carefully chosen, but the mechanism we present can be adapted to general couplings, and we will deal with the general case in future work. 

We develop a geometric mechanism to prove the existence of orbits that drift along a prescribed sequence of cylinders, under some general conditions on the dynamics. This mechanism can be used to prove the existence of Arnold diffusion for large families of perturbations of Tonelli Hamiltonians on A^3. Our approach can also be applied to more general Hamiltonians that are not necessarily convex. The main geometric objects in our framework are –dimensional invariant cylinders with boundary (not necessarily hyperbolic), which are assumed to admit center-stable and center-unstable manifolds. These enable us to define chains of cylinders, i.e., finite, ordered families of cylinders where each cylinder admits homoclinic connections, and any two consecutive cylinders in the chain admit heteroclinic connections. Our main result is on the existence of diffusing orbits which drift along such chains of cylinders, under precise conditions on the dynamics on the cylinders – i.e., the existence of Poincaré sections with the return maps satisfying a tilt condition – and on the geometric properties of the intersections of the center-stable and center-unstable manifolds of the cylinders – i.e., certain compatibility conditions between the tilt map and the homoclinic maps associated to its essential invariant circles. We give two proofs of our result, a very short and abstract one, and a more constructive one, aimed at possible applications to concrete systems. 

We consider a restricted four-body problem, with a precise hierarchy between the bodies: two larger bodies and a smaller one, all three of oblate shape, and a fourth, infinitesimal body, in the neighborhood of the smaller of the three bodies. The three heavy bodies are assumed tomove in a plane under theirmutual gravity, and the fourth body to move in the three-dimensional space under the gravitational influence of the three heavy bodies, but without affecting them.We first find that the triangular central configuration of the three heavy oblate bodies is a scalene triangle (rather than an equilateral triangle as in the point mass case). Then, assuming that these three bodies are in such a central configuration, we perform a Hill approximation of the equations of motion describing the dynamics of the infinitesimal body in a neighborhood of the smaller body. Through the use of Hill’s variables and a limiting procedure, this approximation amounts to sending the two larger bodies to infinity. Finally, for the Hill approximation, we find the equilibrium points for the motion of the infinitesimal body and determine their stability. As a motivating example, we identify the three heavy bodies with the Sun, Jupiter, and the Jupiter’s Trojan asteroid Hektor, which are assumed to move in a triangular central configuration. Then, we consider the dynamics of Hektor’s moonlet Skamandrios.